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The Northern Star 3/14/18 Goldilocks Returns

Message from Jon

This past 12-15 days has seemingly marked the beginning to rebound stemming from our most recent correction.  We have seen the VIX decrease below 20 and a quieting of the recent volatility for the time being.  All this could change of course but for now, we will take what we can...kind of like the weather in Indiana recently!

In my opinion, we are seeing this market shaping up to feel a lot like 2012 where investors witnessed a lot of movement but very little progress.  Those who stayed the course got to participate in 2013 and those who did not, missed out.

Message here is that we will stay the course, maintain our current heading and keep our focus on the shore line and not the short, choppy waters we find ourselves in.


Till we speak again, enjoy this sunshine.


Jon


sources:

https://elite.finviz.com/futures.ashx


GoldiLocks Returns

WEEKLY UPDATE - MARCH 12, 2018



Domestic stocks leapt ahead last week as the latest jobs report inspired renewed confidence in our economic standing. The S&P 500 added 3.54%, and the Dow gained 3.25%.[1] The NASDAQ erased its losses from February's market correction to hit a new record close while growing 4.17% for the week.[2]International stocks in the MSCI EAFE increased by 1.79%.[3]
In addition to solid stock growth, Friday, March 9, also brought a significant milestone in the markets: the 9th anniversary of our current bull market. The Dow is now in the midst of its longest-ever bull run, and the S&P 500's bull market is its 2nd-longest and -largest ever.[4]
To put the recovery in perspective, 9 years ago, the S&P 500 closed at only 676.53. By market's close last Friday, the index was at 2,786.57-more than 4 times its value at the bull market's start.[5]
What drove last week's market performance?
While talk of tariffs on aluminum and steel imports affected stocks last week, a major jobs report was arguably the biggest market mover.[6] The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest jobs report on Friday, and the numbers relieved many investors' inflation concerns. The data showed that the economy added 313,000 jobs in February - far more than what analysts expected.
At the same time, wages only grew by 2.6% from this time last year, below the prediction.[7]
What does this data mean?
Bloomberg called the labor report a "'Goldilocks' scenario," because it indicates that the economy is neither too hot nor too cold. The data reveals that many people are returning to the workforce, but wages are not increasing fast enough to trigger significant inflation.[8]
This jobs report also contrasts with last month's data, which showed wages rising faster than expected. That report contributed to February's market correction.[9]
Ultimately, some analysts believe the latest data implies that inflation is less of a concern, and the Fed may only increase interest rates 3 times this year.[10]
Later this month, Federal Reserve leaders will meet to determine whether to raise interest rates and will also provide their latest economic projections.[11]Looking ahead, we will continue to analyze the interplay between labor, inflation, and interest rates - and how these forces may affect your financial life.  

ECONOMIC CALENDARTuesday: Consumer Price IndexWednesday: Retail Sales    Thursday: Jobless Claims, Housing Market Index
Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment


Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.

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Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
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[1] www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/us-stock-futures-dow-data-nonfarm-payrolls-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX®ion=usa&culture=en-US
http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=%21DJI®ion=usa&culture=en-US
[2] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/nasdaq-takes-just-one-month-to-recoup-worst-losses-in-two-years

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO
[3] www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
[4] www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/the-bull-market-just-turned-9-years-old-heres-how-the-stock-surge-compares-with-past-runs.html

[5] www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/us-stock-futures-dow-data-nonfarm-payrolls-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-bull-market-hits-ninth-birthday-2nd-longest-53632885
[6] www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/us-stock-futures-dow-data-nonfarm-payrolls-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

[7] www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/nonfarm-payrolls-february.html

[8] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/it-s-market-deja-vu-jobs-beat-wages-miss-and-stocks-rally

[9] www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/us-stock-futures-dow-data-nonfarm-payrolls-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

[10] www.cnbc.com/2018/03/09/us-stock-futures-dow-data-nonfarm-payrolls-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

[11] wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=481816&cust=wsj-us&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

[12] www.goodhousekeeping.com/food-recipes/easy/a44230/flatbread-cubano-sandwiches-recipe/
[13] www.irs.gov/newsroom/how-taxpayers-across-the-country-can-have-their-taxes-prepared-for-free

[14] www.golfdigest.com/story/simplify-your-driver-swing-for-effortless-power

[15] www.webmd.com/migraines-headaches/default.htm

[16] www.globalstewards.org/stop-junkmail.htm