Message from Jon
Education is a life-long pursuit. This past week, I passed my exam for Accredited Investment Fiduciary certification. For those of you wondering what AIF stands for after my name, now you know.
We have seemingly shifted from a "good news is bad news" to a "good news is good news" on the markets currently, despite the Yield Curve becoming inverted earlier last month.1
An inverted yield curve is normally a harbinger of an economic recession, and while the future is unknown to us all, there seem to be few signs of a recession in our near future at this point.2 In my opinion, we should experience a temperate investing market for several more months ahead, giving us hope to recoup some losses and reap gains before we may likely have reason to retreat to higher ground once again.
This is not a green light on any and all investments while turning a blind eye and deaf ear to investment risks. It is, however, a reason to shift moderately back into the water in a cautiously optimistic manner with one eye on the horizon and one on the ground below.
We have business inventories up, construction spending is also up, and employment levels are low-all signs that would be where they are currently should a recession be nearing.3
Dorsey/Wright and Stormguard are both showing that the market conditions are favorable for investing into equities and riskier assets compared to bonds, cash, and alternatives at the moment.
We have been investing and rebalancing for clients since late January under the belief that the Trade War will be resolved, the Fed will reduce the frequency of interest rate advances, and that Brexit would be fixed as well.4 So far, 1 out of the 3 has proved correct, and we will continue to wait on the other 2 (trade & Brexit) to be sorted out-we hope sooner than later.
Till we speak again, enjoy this spring-like weather!
BTW: I will be out of the office on business next Monday - Tues and returning Wednesday.
Gains Conclude a Great Quarter
WEEKLY UPDATE - APRIL 1, 2019