The Northern Star Newsletter 10/10/19 - Special Update: Quarterly Report
Message from Jon
Economic Data Update:
We have much economic data that is tracked and produced every week around the world. This past reporting period, we have seen evidence of the concerns around a recession begin to show up. Make no mistake, I am not indicating a recession is approaching, yet. I am just saying that some of the data is confirming concerns.
- ISM Index (Manufacturing Index) declined below the 50% level, indicating a contraction. The index actually reached its ten-year low in September.1
- Non-Farm Payrolls where expected in at 160K and came in at 130K. Even that information did not sway the unemployment rate as it still hangs at 3.2%.1
- GDP for the 2nd Quarter is reported in at 2.0%.1
Last week, we saw the S&P 500 decline as high as 4.5% before a late rally on hopes of trade negotiations with China & a formal inquiry into President Trump's conversation with Ukraine's President leading to the possibility of an Impeachment.2 This information is sure to add to the overall market volatility, in my opinion.
(1 month chart of S&P 500 Index)
If you examine a 1 year Chart of the S&P 500 index (below), you can notice that the majority of this year's returns happened between Dec 24th and Apr 29th, but since then, we are flat to slightly negative.
(1 year chart of the S&P 500 Index)
As a result of this kind of volatility, returns in various investments seem to quickly manifest and to disappear just as quickly, leaving investors feeling deflated, confused, disappointed, and second-guessing themselves. 2019 has a striking resemblance to 2016 and feels similar to 2012 to me.
At present, we are taking profits, buying conservatively, and being more cautious than we normally are.
This week's volatility and sell off seems to be reactionary to concerns of the Trade War and the Impeachment Inquiry rather than any real economic merit in my opinion. As such, a really good idea is to shut off the news and preserve your peace of mind, in my humble opinion!
We will be updating client forms and contact information with clients over the next several months as we meet. This is to comply with State and Federal Rules and Regs.
We will also be making RSVP calls for our Winter Gala Client Appreciation Event on Nov 16th and would love to see you if you can make it.
Till we speak again,
Special Update: Quarterly Report
WEEKLY UPDATE - OCTOBER 7, 2019
The Week on Wall Street
The fourth quarter started with a mixed week for equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.92% for the week; the S&P 500, 0.33%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite improved 0.54%. Overseas stocks pulled back: the MSCI EAFE index dipped 2.60%.
Securities offered through Regulus Advisors, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Regal Investment Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Registration with the SEC does not imply any level of skill or training. Regulus Advisors and Regal Investment Advisors are affiliated entities. Summit Retirement Advisors, LLC and Summit Financial Group of Indiana are affiliated entities. Summit Retirement Advisors, LLC and Summit Financial Group of Indiana are independent of Regulus Advisors and Regal Investment Advisors.