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The Northern Star Newsletter 10/29/20 - No Stimulus, Stocks Lower

4

Message from Jon

 

Market Update

At this point, the only focus that Wall Street seems dialed in on is the election. In our opinion, Monday's sell off was based on the final realization that a stimulus package would not come through prior to the election and seeing the beginning of the 2nd wave of COVID cases igniting around the world. Will the 2nd wave be worse than the first?

  • We have more ventilators than we did.1
  • We are now very aware of what COVIDis and can do.2
  • It seems like the face masks and social distancing is in place around the world.3,4

Based on what we are seeing, we do not think it will cause us to go back into quarantine causing an economic suspension again.

Our opinion on the election at this point is that we are 90% likely to see a Biden win and a 60% chance of a tax reform causing a tax-based rebalancing on Wall Street reminiscent of 4th quarter of 2018. If we see a Republican controlled Senate, we will likely not see a stimulus package or at least not one strong enough to satisfy Wall Street. If we see a change from the top down, we will likely see a Stimulus package that will override a tax-based rebalance. Let's not discount a Vaccine or news of one coupled with a Stimulus package.

The above scenario possibilities are why we have delayed our October rebalance to December, which gives us a much better vantage point in which to view and process the data. More importantly, is what Wall Street's approach to the data is saying. 

Keep in mind, Wall Street pays attention to a different set of information than the media or Main Street does. Earnings, Monetary Policy, Tax Reform, GDP, Jobs, Interest Rates and Consumer Spending are some of the interest points that move Wall Street. BLM, Antifa, Social Unrest, Debates, Police Shootings, Rioting and Discord, while they may all be important and make the mainstream media millions of dollars, they are not focal points by Analysts, Economists and Traders in our opinion, which explains why I rarely if ever comment on them.

We are interested in what Wall Street is interested in.

Till we speak again, make sure you VOTE!

Jon

 

 Sources

  1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/18/ventilators-coronavirus-stockpile/
  2. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t1021-cdc-media-briefing.html
  3. https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/uc-davis-experts-science-says-wearing-masks-and-social-distancing-slow-covid-19/2020/07#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWe%20do%20know%20social%20distancing,community%2C%20wear%20a%20mask.%E2%80%9D
  4. http://www.healthdata.org/acting-data/why-we-must-continue-wearing-masks-and-social-distancing

 No Stimulus, Stocks Lower

WEEKLY UPDATE - OCTOBER 26, 2020


The Week on Wall Street

The failure to reach an agreement on a new fiscal stimulus bill soured investor sentiment and sent stocks modestly lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.95%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.53%. The Nasdaq Composite index slipped 1.06% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 0.44%.[1][2][3] 


Markets Disappointed with Stimulus Impasse

Stock prices ebbed and flowed all week, pulled by the gravity of fiscal stimulus talks in Washington, D.C. As investors saw improving prospects for a new fiscal stimulus bill, stocks rose. As prospects dimmed, stocks turned lower. 

 

Hopes for striking a deal were raised late in the week as comments from a key negotiator suggested that a deal might be getting closer to fruition. The week ended, however, without an agreement, cementing a disappointing week of performance. 

 

Market sentiment was further weighed down by the continued rise in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe, though anxieties were tempered by the belief that a full economic lockdown was unlikely.

 

New Jobless Claims Fall

Markets have been focused on weekly initial jobless claims as an important input into the state of economic recovery. After weeks of 800,000+ new jobless claims, last week's report reflected an improving labor market, as new jobless claims rose by 787,000, below consensus estimates of 875,000, while continuing jobless claims fell by more than one million.[4]

 

The report wasn't entirely positive, however, as more than 500,000 individuals were added to the emergency assistance program that extends unemployment benefits to those who have run out of state unemployment benefits.[5]

 

THIS WEEK: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: New Home Sales. 

Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders. Consumer Confidence.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

 

Source: Econoday, October 23, 2020

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THIS WEEK: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Twilio, Inc (TWLO) 

Tuesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Pfizer (PFE), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), 3M Company (MMM), Corning Inc. (GLW)

Wednesday: General Electric (GE), The Boeing Corporation (BA), Ford Motor Company (F), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Blackstone Group (BX), Amgen (AMGN), United Parcel Services (UPS), EBay (EBAY), Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), Southern Company Airlines (SO), Shopify (SHOP), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), AnheuserBusch InBev (BUD) 

Friday: Abbvie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Charter Communications (CHTR)

 

Source: Zacks, October 23, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Gray 

Quote Of The Week

Fountain Pen



"Getting people to like you is merely the other side of liking them." - Norman Vincent Peale 

Recipe Of The Week

Fork and Knife

Meatball Mummies

 


6 mummies Ingredients:
  • 1 roll of prepared pizza dough
     
  • 18 cooked meatballs (homemade or frozen and defrosted)
     
  • 6 raw spaghetti noodles
     
  • 12 edible eyeballs (recipe below)
     
  • Pasta sauce for serving
Edible "Eyeballs"
  • 10-12 slices Mozzarella or Monterey Jack cheese
     
  • 20-30 black olives
     
  • 10 slices zucchini or eggplant
     
  • 1 large straw (size used for a smoothie)
     
  • 1 regular straw 
Directions for Edible "Eyeballs":
  1. Cut slices of cheese as thick as you want your eyeballs to be.
     
  2. If using the zucchini or eggplant, cut off a piece of the skin approximately the same thickness as your cheese. If using olives, cut off the sides so they can lay flat.
     
  3. Using the large straw, cut large circles out of the cheese. Cut the centers out of your circles using the small straw.
     
  4. Using the small straw, cut pieces out of your dark veggies or olives. Pop the little pieces into the cheese circle.[6]
Mummy Assembly Directions:
  1. Preheat the oven to 350 degrees
     
  2. Cut the pizza dough into ¼" wide strips.
     
  3. Hold the meatballs in place while you assemble them by putting 3 meatballs onto a strand of raw spaghetti.
     
  4. Wrap the meatballs with the strands of dough by criss crossing them. Don't forget to leave room for the eyes!
     
  5. Gently remove the raw spaghetti and lay each mummy on a lined baking pan.
     
  6. Bake for 19-23 minutes or until browned.
     
  7. Add in the edible eyeballs using ketchup or by wedging them in between the dough. If you don't want to make edible eyeballs, you can create a similar look using mayonnaise and a drop of ketchup.
     
  8. Serve with warm pasta sauce! 
Recipe adapted from Spend With Pennies[7] 

Gray

 

Tax Tips

Document

Parents Who Adopt May Be Able to Benefit From a Tax Credit

 

The adoption credit is designed for families who adopted or started the adoption process. These taxpayers may be able to claim up to $14,080 of credit for each eligible child. To determine eligibility, taxpayers should fill out Form 8839, Qualified Adoption Expenses. This can help you determine how much credit you may be eligible for. This credit may cover qualified expenses, including reasonable and necessary adoption fees, court costs and legal fees, adoption-related travel expenses, and other expenses directly related to the adoption. There are also income limits that could affect the amount of the credit. The SECURE Act added an allowance for a $5,000 IRA withdrawal (without the usual 10% penalty) that can be used toward expenses related to childbirth or an adoption. This withdrawal counts as taxable income, though, and must be taken within a year of the child's birth or arrival. * This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. Tip adapted from IRS.gov and CNBC.com[8][9]

Golf Tip

Golfer

Try This Club Acceleration Drill

 

Every good golfer knows the importance of each phase of their swing: the load up, the store up, and the release of power. This drill will help you feel the correct amount of power throughout the whole swing.

 

Start by grabbing any club from your bag (the longer, the better). Set up as normal, then hold the club at waist height. Remember to maintain your normal tilts. Then, turn the club upside down so you're holding the club head and swinging the grip.

 

Try to create a "swoosh" noise in your upward swing by swinging the club with enough power and follow through. Do this until you're comfortable with the motion. Then, switch the club and your grip back to normal. This drill will help you understand the dynamics of a full swing as well as help you keep your front wrist flat and your back wrist hinged.


Tip adapted from Grant Brown Golf[10]

Healthy Lifestyle

Medical Cross

Are You Storing Your Food Correctly?

 

Storing your food correctly can help minimize food waste, keep you safe, and keep your food tasting as delicious as possible. Here are some tips:

  • Your refrigerator should be at or below 40 degrees F and your freezer should be 0 degrees F. Check the temperatures regularly to make sure they are within safe ranges. Appliance thermometers are the easiest way to do this.
     
  • Never allow meat, poultry, seafood, eggs, or other foods that require refrigeration to sit out for over two hours. This also applies to leftovers in to-go containers.
     
  • Don't overcrowd your fridge or freezer because air won't be able to circulate.
     
  • Freezer burn doesn't mean food is unsafe, it just means that air got in and caused dry spots on frozen food.
     
  • Store eggs in their carton in the fridge itself, not in the door. The door of a fridge is often a little warmer. 

Tip adapted from FDA[11]

 

Green Living

Leaf

Breathe Easy and Feel Better - with House Plants

 

Houseplants accent your home, decorating with beautiful pops of color and texture, but they can also make us feel better. One reason plants are a healthy addition to your home is that they clean the air. Greenery around the house removes over 85% of pollutants from the air within a 24-hour period.

 

Plants around the home also reduce stress and boost your mood. Need a few tips to get started? Here are a few, easy-care varieties:

  • Monstera deliciosa (Swiss cheese plant): It grows quickly and has big, beautiful leaves.
     
  • Epipremnum aureum (golden pothos or devil's ivy): Great starter plants; they thrive in a hanging planter. Be careful if you have pets: they are toxic to cats and dogs.
     
  • Hedera (ivy): If you love ivy, this plant is for you.
     
  • Chlorophytum comosum (spider plant): These low-maintenance plants require watering from the bottom. They sprout babies regularly, so you can share them with friends and family.
     
  • If you want really low-maintenance plants, you can try succulents and cacti. They are easy to replant, and it's fun to combine different varieties to make one-pot gardenscapes. They can also go longer without watering. 

Tip adapted from Women's Health[12]

 

Share the Wealth of Knowledge!

 

Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!

 

Gray 

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

 

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

 

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

   

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

 

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

 

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.

   

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

 

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

 

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

 

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative,

Broker dealer or Investment Advisor and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial professional for further information.

 

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

 [1] The Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2020

[2] The Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2020

[3] The Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2020

[4] CNBC.com, October 22, 2020

[5] CNBC.com, October 22, 2020

[6] Spendwithpennies.com, October 22, 2020

[7] Spendwithpennies.com, October 22, 2020

[8] IRS.gov, March 10, 2020

[9] CNBC.com, October 22, 2020

[10] Grantbrowngolf.com, October 22, 2020
[11] FDA.gov, October 22, 2020
[12] Womenshealthmag.com, October 22, 2020


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