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The Northern Star Newsletter 1/9/20 - Concerns About Oil

4

Message from Jon


Insight Update: 

FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out is not the punchline of a bad joke. It is a real issue with investors of all walks of life. FOMO happens whenever we see a rally of significance in the markets that catches investors by surprise. This triggers a "get on board or lose out" response, and they end up investing at highs hoping they will gain like their friend, buddy, or confidant and not be on the outside looking in.

Early in my career, I was warned by a mentor that this phenomenon was real and not to react to it, but I failed to understand why anyone rational enough to understand investing would fall prey to this and dismissed it. Over my nearly 20-year career now, I have witnessed some fairly intelligent investors fall prey to this emotional response to their money, and it still dismays me. In spite of everything they read, they still believe that buying the markets AFTER it has seen an all-time high is hope that it will still go higher.

Insert warning here!

Investing is, more often than not, counter-intuitive in its nature. The discipline it takes to achieve success cannot be underestimated and is not really seen until decades have passed-not quarters. I am beginning to think Buffett was correct when he said that most "Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."1 I have forgotten how many times we have bought investments, and when they initially decline, Mr. Investor gets impatient and wants to sell only to look back 12-24 months to find out that what was sold at a loss would have been a sizable gain had they just been patient and trusted the criteria of the purchase.

Develop your comprehensive plan, stick to your plan, and forget about all the noise out there that doesn't have anything to do with your plan!

Market Update:

The trends in the markets seem to remain strong and intact. We are witnessing a corrective sell-off due to the recent Iran airstrike and its "implications," but in spite of all the internet hypotheses and rumors disguised as fact, WWIII is not on the horizon, in my opinion.2 If you know your history, wars are good for the markets anyway.

2020 is sure to be an interesting year with the election, Trade war resolution prospects, and Fed Policy decisions-not to mention any other issues that pop up and make the headlines. For us, we will stay our course, remain diligent, follow our data and indications, and continue to guide clients toward their financial goals.

 

Till we speak again, enjoy...January! 

Jon


sources:

  1. https://www.fool.com/investing/best-warren-buffett-quotes.aspx
  2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-vows-revenge-after-us-drone-strike-kills-elite-force-commander/2020/01/03/345127d6-2df4-11ea-bffe-020c88b3f120_story.html

 

Concerns About Oil

WEEKLY UPDATE - JANUARY 6, 2020


The Week on Wall Street
Stocks descended from record highs Friday, as traders reacted to a U.S. drone strike that killed Iran's top military officer. Oil prices rose more than 3% following the breaking news.[1]

Wall Street benchmarks ended up having a sideways week, shortened by the New Year's Day holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.04% across four trading sessions; the S&P 500, 0.16%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16%. The MSCI EAFE index, benchmarking developed overseas stock markets, added 0.30%.[2][3]

Oil Takes Center Stage
WTI crude oil settled at $63.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday, down from an intraday peak of $64.09 (which was its highest price since April).

The commodity rallied Friday, as energy traders considered the possibility of supply disruptions in the Middle East in retaliation for last week's U.S. air strike.[4]

Manufacturing Activity Declines
At the start of each month, economists watch the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector, which is considered a key barometer of U.S. manufacturing health.

Last week, ISM announced a December reading of 47.2 for this index, the poorest in more than ten years. A reading below 50 indicates manufacturing activity is contracting rather than expanding.[5]

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: The Institute for Supply Management presents its December Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, gauging the pace of activity in the U.S. service sector.
Wednesday: Payroll processor ADP releases its December national private-sector employment report.
Friday: The December jobs report from the Department of Labor.

Source: MarketWatch, January 3, 2020
The MarketWatch economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Wednesday: Constellation Brands (STZ), Lennar (LEN), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
Friday: Infosys (INFY)

Source: Zacks, January 3, 2020
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Gray

Quote Of The Week

Fountain Pen


"Knowing what must be done does away with fear."

-Rosa Parks

Recipe Of The Week

Fork and Knife

Cauliflower Pizza


Serves 4 Ingredients:
  • One whole cauliflower
     
  • One egg
     
  • ½ cup Parmesan and/or Mozzarella cheese, grated.
     
  • 1½ tsp. seasoning mix of basil, oregano, salt, and pepper (to taste)
     
  • Extra virgin olive oil, misted (or cooking spray)
Directions:
  1. Preheat oven to 375˚F and add parchment paper.
     
  2. After you rinse and chop cauliflower, rice in food processor, and then microwave for 8 minutes (or bake in oven for 15 minutes on a baking sheet).
     
  3. Once cooked, move rice to layered cheesecloth and let cool for five minutes. Compress the liquid out of the cheesecloth until it no longer produces water.
     
  4. Raise oven temperature to 450˚F.
     
  5. Mix egg, seasoning mixture. Add grated cheese and fully drained cauliflower rice. Mix well into pizza dough.
     
  6. Add new parchment paper to baking sheet, mist with olive oil or cooking spray. Move dough to center of sheet and flatten into a thin pizza crust.
     
  7. Bake for 20 minutes on each side, turning with spatula. Once baked, add favorite toppings and cheese and bake until evenly melted.

Recipe adapted from ifoodreal.com[6]

 

Gray


Tax Tips

Document

Report Hobby Income


Many people do side hobbies for fun, which also happen to bring in extra income. Whenever taxpayers make money from their hobbies, they must report the income to the IRS. Here are some tips to help you correctly claim your income and expenses:

  • Discern between a hobby or business: You can use this IRS checklist to help guide you to identify which type of income you have.
  • Deduct expenses: Your hobby probably has necessary expenses that you must spend in order to do it well. For example, you may need to buy yarn to knit scarves. You can deduct any expenses that fall within these categories.
  • Follow deduction limits: You can only deduct approvable expenses, up to the amount you brought in for income.

Other details may apply, and you can find more information on the IRS website.

 

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

 

Tip adapted from IRS.gov[7]


Golf Tip

Golfer

Tee It Forward

It can be tempting to play a challenging course from the longest set of tees, letting you experience the shots that pros do across a round. Sometimes, though, the holes become too long. When you play all the way from the back tees, you may be setting yourself up for a slow and frustrating round. If you end up using hybrids or fairway woods for every approach shot, is that really fun?

 

So, think about teeing it forward: instead of playing from the black tees, stick to the blues, the whites, or whatever tees correspond to a yardage you feel comfortable with. This encourages a better score and a faster round.



Tip adapted from USGA.org[8]

 

Healthy Lifestyle

Medical Cross

Start the New Year Off S.M.A.R.T.


While around 60% of us make New Year's Resolutions, only 8% of us achieve them. But don't let that discourage you! Transform your New Year's Resolution into a "S.M.A.R.T." goal, following these criteria.

  • Specificity - How could you reach this goal? Consider the who, what, when, where, which, and why of the process.
  • Measurability - Set some metrics.
  • Achievability - Define small, attainable subtasks.
  • Relevance - Will the steps yield the desired result?
  • Timeliness - Assign realistic deadlines for each step.

So, instead of resolving to "add money to my rainy day fund," plan to "add $50 to my rainy day fund per month for home repairs." You can reassess and adjust your plan with time.

 

Start S.M.A.R.T. and make it easier to realize your 2020 goals.



Tip adapted from Inc.com[9] and SmartSheet.com[10]


Green Living

Leaf

Recycling Real Trees

As much as you may love the smell of a real Christmas tree, at some point, you'll need to dispose of it. But there's a better way of getting rid of your old tree that's good for the environment as well.

  • Recycling. Many communities now have designated days and times to pick up old Christmas trees. Instead of your tree ending up in a landfill, they'll be put through a woodchipper and used as mulch for local parks. 
  • Mulch. Already have a woodchipper? Make mulch for your own yard. You can even invite friends and family over to mulch their trees too.
  • Firewood.If you have a fireplace, chop up your Christmas tree, wait for the logs to dry out, and then enjoy the sweet smell of pine, while warding off those cold spring nights.

 

Tip adapted from Popular Mechanics[11]

Share the Wealth of Knowledge!

 

Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!

 

Gray 

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative,
Broker dealer or Investment Advisor and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as the links are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

[1] www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-dives-us-airstrike-gold-prices-oil-prices-jump-tesla-stock/ [2] www.wsj.com/market-data [3] www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/XX/990300 [4] www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/oil-safe-havens-surge-after-u-s-strikes-kill-iran-commander-idUSKBN1Z2042 [5] www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-slumps-worsens-in-december-as-ism-index-falls-to-10-year-low-2020-01-03 [6] ifoodreal.com/cauliflower-pizza-crust/ [7] www.irs.gov/faqs/small-business-self-employed-other-business/income-expenses/income-expenses [8] www.usga.org/pace-of-play-resource-center/tips-and-suggestions-for-improving-pace-of-play.html [9] www.inc.com/peter-economy/10-top-new-years-resolutions-for-success-happiness-in-2019.html [10] www.smartsheet.com/blog/essential-guide-writing-smart-goals [11] www.popularmechanics.com/home/how-to-plans/how-to/g2384/6-ways-to-reuse-your-christmas-tree/

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