Message from Jon
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We are seeing a lot of messages these days on the news and outlets and many of them are quite interesting to be sure. While the news is good commentary at the dinner table, what we are looking at and evaluating is similar but a bit more focused on the daily calls between Tyler and me. For example:
- Are we seeing any new outbreaks in Asia or Europe that were not there yesterday?
- What is causing the optimism in Oil right now and is it something we should be making a play for or not?
- Is the data telling us that we are possibly seeing a bottom in the markets?
- Do we think the rebound is going to be a V-shape or U-shape?
- How much longer should we remain cautious before we begin to rebalance accounts to position for growth?
- What would have to be announced or happen for the euphoria to turn to concern in the markets?
- Are the markets looking at the data or are they attempting to look through it?
- If so-what time frame are they attempting to attach their lens to?
- Who is the best at mitigating risk and who is the best at producing returns (because they are often not the same firm, person or fund) and what are they doing?
- What's our risk in getting in too early vs too late?
- How far are we from a vaccine?
- Is the curve (virus) getting flatter or is it still growing?
- Is the death rate still within 3.5 - 5% or is it falling or climbing?
- Where is money going to go first on the bottom vs first on the societal all clear signal?
- What strategies are now void of value and what strategies need to be implemented?
I liken our calls at times to what I would suspect a military briefing would be like-what we know, what we think we know, and what we don't know now but are watching closely. So as you can see, we are going through a lot of data and asking numerous questions of colleagues and ourselves in order to prime the pump and prepare for whatever is coming next.
In our opinion, accounts did very well on the downside and now the importance shifts to how they are positioned and when so that we achieve the upside.
Easier said than done for sure, but every day we are focused on the health and well-being of our clients. Do not get sucked in to thinking the worst is behind us, it's not yet but getting your cash and portion of savings ready to invest is a really sound idea in my opinion.
Till we speak again-stay safe and know that the numbers are indicating the quarantine actions are working!
Special Update: Quarterly Report
WEEKLY UPDATE - APRIL 6, 2020
The Week on Wall Street
Modest declines in stock prices this week masked the volatile inter- and intraday price swings as investors digested poor economic data and a warning from the president that the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic may still lie ahead. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 2.70%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 2.08%. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1.72%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 2.76%.
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