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The Northern Star Newsletter 6/11/20 - Recovery Optimism Builds

4

Message from Jon


Market Update

Well, what is there to say except that this period reminds us of the late, late 90's where day-trading and speculation ruled the day and FOMO while it was yet a real thing, was certainly in high gear. When I see bragging online done by seemingly younger investors who are claiming they are taking their stimulus checks and investing them, or talking about using margin accounts and making money, you cannot help but to think how badly this will all end!3


We are now seeing the comment of "V-shaped recovery" brandishing about with no real understanding of the underlying metrics of what that really means.2


Consider this for just a second, do we see the unemployment numbers at January, or even February numbers yet? Do we see companies' earnings back to all-time highs yet or even their workforce gainfully employed yet? Do we see the FED's liquidity (all $11.1 Trillion of it)1 repaid and backed out of the markets yet? Do recessions REALLY last only 2 months?2 You've got to ask yourself, is the ride really over? 


Make no mistake, I enjoy seeing all the green on the screen for sure. I am just not naive enough to believe that the underlying market matrices are sound enough currently to warrant all the euphoric appetites that are appearing. 


One explanation could be Robinhood investors. Yes, I said Robinhood investors, as in the online robo-investing platform. It appears that the average account is between $1,000 and $5,000 in size, but when you get enough investors putting in $1,600 and buying on margin, you can certainly see an impact on the overall market condition.3,4,5 How do you raise a river level? By adding one stone at a time over and over and over again until the level has changed.


At this point, in our opinion, we have now started to focus on the next rendezvous point in the market where a number of major market data, events and topics are set to converge as an area where we want to revisit our approach and either confirm or contrast what it is we are buying, but until then, stay tuned and stay cool! 


Jon

 

Sources:

  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/when-8-trillion-in-global-fiscal-stimulus-still-isn-t-enough
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/06/all-of-a-sudden-people-are-talking-about-a-v-shaped-recovery-again-the-stock-market-had-it-right.html
  3. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/09/robinhood-traders-cash-in-on-the-market-comeback-that-billionaire-investors-missed.html
  4. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-traders-bet-hertz-bankruptcy-stocks-despite-huge-risks-2020-6-1029292002
  5. https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/20/robinhood-profiles-morgan-stanley-etrade/#:~:text=While%20Robinhood%20might%20have%20more,Robinhood's%20held%20%241%2C000%20to%20%245%2C000.


Recovery Optimism Builds

WEEKLY UPDATE - JUNE 8, 2020


The Week on Wall Street

A positive jobs report sent stocks soaring last Friday, capping a solid week as evidence of a global economic recovery outweighed concerns over civil unrest and tensions with China. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 6.81%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 advanced 4.91%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index lagged, climbing 3.42%. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed stock markets overseas, gained 5.52%.[1][2][3]


Stocks March Higher

Despite multiple headwinds, stocks rode a wave of optimism over economic recovery and were encouraged by signs that a feared spike in COVID-19 had not occurred.

 

Firming oil prices and positive global manufacturing data helped boost stocks during the week. The market continued to be led by industry sectors that were most battered in the March decline, as price advances slowed in growth-oriented stocks, primarily technology names.

 

After a pause on Thursday, stocks surged on Friday when a jobs report surprisingly showed 2.5 million new jobs in May, with the unemployment rate falling to 13.3%. Wall Street expected a jobs decline of over 8 million and an unemployment rate of 19.5%.[4][5]

 

A Wall of Worry

While the markets continued to move higher last week, many investors are concerned that the recovery may be hindered by simmering tensions with China and the civil unrest that erupted last week.

 

China has been a longstanding source of market worry, but the civil unrest introduces a new challenge. For now, the market appears to have shrugged off these concerns.

 

Final Thought

This past Wednesday marked the best 50-day gain for the S&P 500 in the index's history. During a period that approximates the lifespan of a mosquito, stock market sentiment has swung from near-absolute despair in late March to positively bullish.[6]

 

Often, the most impactful lessons in life tend to be those most recently learned. If the last three months have offered investors any lesson, it may be that trying to time the market is a challenging proposition. 

 

THIS WEEK: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement. Federal Reserve Chair Press Conference.

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

 

Source: Econoday, June 5, 2020

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THIS WEEK: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Coupa Software (COUP).

Tuesday: Chewy (CHWY).

Thursday: Lululemon (LULU).

 

Source: Zacks, June 5, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Gray

Quote Of The Week

Fountain Pen


"If I cannot do great things, I can do small things in a great way." - Martin Luther King Jr.

Recipe Of The Week

Fork and Knife

Spinach Pomegranate Salad with Chicken


Serves 2 Ingredients:
  • 2 chicken breasts
     
  • 2 tsp. olive oil (if you opt to cook in a skillet)
     
  • 4 cups spinach
     
  • ½ cup pomegranate seeds
     
  • 1 Tbsp. olive oil (for dressing)
     
  • 1 Tbsp. lemon juice
     
  • Salt and pepper, to taste
Directions:
  1. Season chicken with salt and pepper and grilling and cook in skillet with olive oil, as preferred, approximately 10 to 15 minutes.
     
  2. Once cooled, cut the chicken into strips.
     
  3. Toss together the spinach, pomegranate seeds, and chicken strips.
     
  4. Drizzle olive oil and lemon juice, then sprinkle with salt and pepper.
     
  5. Toss lightly and serve.
     
Recipe adapted from WideOpenEats.com[7]

Gray


Tax Tips

Document

Deductions for Educators


Are you a teacher? Are you looking to put money directly back in your pocket after the semester? You're in luck! Educators may be able to deduct unreimbursed expenses on their tax returns. Here are some things to know about this deduction:

  • Educators can deduct up to $250 of trade or business expenses that were not reimbursed. As teachers prepare for the next school year, they should remember to keep receipts after making any purchase to support claiming this deduction.
     
  • Qualified expenses should be in the amounts the taxpayer paid for the expenses in the same tax year.
     
  • Professional development course fees, books, supplies, or computer equipment are all valid deductions.
     
  • To be considered eligible, you must be a teacher, instructor, counselor, principal, or aide.

 

*This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

 

 

Tip adapted from IRS.gov[8]

Golf Tip

Golfer

Cutting Down on 3-Putts


When you think about it, three-putting a green largely has to do with distance. Your first putt is either way too short or long. Your second putt is just inches short or long. Here are some tips to help you unite feel and mechanics when you putt, for fewer three-putts in the future.

 

As you take your practice putts, engage the hole with your eyes. This is a huge help in getting the distance right; many poor putters don't do it. After that, address the ball, putt just like your practice strokes, and feel the distance as the ball leaves the clubface, which will improve the muscle memory in your hands.



Tip adapted from YourTahoePlace[9]


Healthy Lifestyle

Medical Cross

Staying Hydrated This Summer


Amid the ongoing pandemic, many have taken to outdoor activities. As summer approaches, it may be wise to consider your fluid intake. But just a reminder: some health conditions may require carefully regulated fluid intake, so make sure you consult your health provider first if you have any concerns. The American Heart Association recommends the following for adequate fluid management:
  • If you're thirsty, you're already dehydrated. Thirst might not be the best indicator of hydration status.
     
  • Weigh yourself before and after exercising. Drinking 1 pint of water is recommended for every pound you lose.
     
  • Choose water over other fluids. Water is typically the preferred means of rehydration.
     
  • Remember to hydrate often. Exercising or not, the heat can deplete your body of much-needed fluids.
Be mindful of your water intake and enjoy your summer to the fullest.  Tip adapted from American Heart Association[10]


Green Living

Leaf

Eco-Friendly Popsicles

 

Summer is heating up, which means cooling down with a favorite summer treat: popsicles! Here are a few ways that you can enjoy your favorite summer treats while also making decisions to benefit the earth.

 

Have some fun with the kids in the kitchen and reduce the amount of single-use plastic by making your own popsicles. Silicone molds make them easy to freeze with less mess. You don't even need to buy popsicle sticks. Just fill the molds with a homemade smoothie mixture or juice and wait for them to freeze. The best part? You can make healthy and tasty alternatives that your children or grandchildren will love.

 

 

Tip adapted from Green Living Ideas[11]


Share the Wealth of Knowledge!

 

Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!

 

Gray 

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

 

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

 

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

 

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

 

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

 

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

 

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

 

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative,

Broker dealer or Investment Advisor and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial professional for further information.

 

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as the links are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

 [1] The Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2020

[2] The Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2020

[3] The Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2020

[4] CNBC, June 5, 2020

[5] CNBC, June 5, 2020

[6] The Wall Street Journal, June 4, 2020

[7] Wide Open Eats, June 5, 2020

[8] IRS.gov, June 5, 2020  

[9] Your Tahoe Place, June 5, 2020

[10] Heart.org, June 5, 2020

[11] Green Living Ideas, June 5, 2020

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