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The Northern Star Newsletter 9/10/20 - Stocks Stall as Recovery Continues

4

Message from Jon


Upcoming Webinar:

Wednesday Sept 23rd

12-1pm EST

Where we are and what we know now 

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Here's what happened...

Delta Hedge:

"Delta hedging is an options trading strategy that aims to reduce, or hedge, the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying asset. The approach uses options to offset the risk to either a single other option holding or an entire portfolio of holdings. The investor tries to reach a delta neutral state and not have a directional bias on the hedge..."   -Investopedia 1

This all began in late July, in our opinion. A small company (sarcasm here), named Softbank, out of Japan started buying call options on most of the Mega Cap Technology Stocks in the NASDAQ. As a matter of fact now, Masayoshi Son, CEO of Softbank, bought up approximately $50B worth of call options on Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Apple and Tesla creating a very lopsided supply and demand ratio in the Mega Cap Technology stocks as well as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes.3,4 

A very basic version of what happens is when a naked call option is bought: the seller has to take a hedge against the stock in case it goes up or down in a concerted manner. This seller (usually a bank) will take an actual position in the underlying security to hedge the risk of the price of the security as it climbs or falls according to the call option's strike price. Complicated, I know, and frankly above my paygrade here, but oh well...

Since naked options have an unlimited gain or loss to them, unlike the covered calls that we have invested in for some clients, the risk can be exponential-meaning that if the price of the stock goes high, they may have to buy a percentage of the underlying option. When it goes even higher, they may have to buy more and more and more but in larger quantities as the price increases.

In essence, they become a forced buyer. Well, what goes up must come down...

When the stock falls, due to one reason or another, those who were once forced buyers now become forced sellers to unwind their risk exposure as well, and now, the stock falls even faster.

Softbank is the "Whale" behind the momentum in the tech stocks since July. Those who were, are, and may be buyers due to FOMO or some other interest levels in technology and the general indexes are getting pinched in their trades as of yet and could quite frankly see more pain before it gets better. 5,6 We too bought some technology as a momentum trade in a growth portfolio only to see that one trade get hit by the recent whale's shift in direction and its wake.

This too will pass. Building a portfolio with proper mechanics, weighting, design and allocations all help to mitigate the potential for a killer whale attack such as this one.

Could the markets continue to fall? Sure. Here's a clue though. In our opinion, if this decline was a systemic faltering of the underlying economy or breakdown in supply and demand in equities or a shift in monetary policy, we would be seeing this decline in equities across both domestic, foreign and emerging markets. We are not. In our research and opinion, we are seeing this breakdown and correction contained in the US markets alone.

Does that mean that this will not spread? No, it does not, in our opinion.

Does that mean that the tech investments are bad for portfolios? In the short-term, it will be tough, but in the long term, not at all as we see it. You may need to dollar-cost average to get a lower cost basis, but the companies-provided the ones you bought were high quality-are still good high-quality companies.2

Again, focus on what matters most...your goals, accomplishing your needs, wants and wishes, and arriving at retirement comfortably and able to enjoy your time.

 

Till we speak again, have a productive, albeit short week!

Jon


Sources:

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deltahedging.asp
  2. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp
  3. https://fortune.com/2020/09/07/softbank-nasdaq-whale-unmasked-stock/
  4. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-nasdaq-whale-may-have-triggered-the-stock-markets-brutal-rout-claims-report-11599234572
  5. https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2
  6. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/softbank-has-closed-most-its-nasdaq-whale-positions

 

Stocks Stall as Recovery Continues

WEEKLY UPDATE - SEPTEMBER 8, 2020


The Week on Wall Street

A late week sell-off sent stocks broadly lower as investors took some profits after stocks reached all-time highs earlier in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.82%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 slumped 2.31%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 3.27% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.62%.[1][2][3] 


Gravity Reasserts Itself

Stocks hit a wall late last week as the technology companies, which had led the market higher, slipped in Thursday and Friday trading, dragging down the overall market.

 

The week began on an upbeat note as August momentum continued into the start of September. While participation in the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday was fairly broad, technology stocks continued to be the focus of market strength. But that sentiment changed quickly on Thursday.

 

With little warning and no obvious catalyst, it remains unclear whether the technology selloff last week was the result of market technicals or a fundamental change in investor outlook. The coming weeks may provide some clarity in this regard. 

 

Labor Market Recovery Sputters Forward

Last week saw a series of employment-related reports that evidenced a continued labor market recovery.

 

The Automated Data Processing (ADP) employment survey showed that private payrolls increased by 428,000 in August, falling short of consensus expectations of over 1.1 million.News turned more positive as new jobless claims checked in at 881,000-an improvement from the over one million new claims the prior week. Americans receiving unemployment declined by 1.24 million to 13.3 million-half the peak number in May.[4][5][6]

 

Finally, the monthly jobs report indicated that nearly 1.4 million nonfarm jobs were added last month, with the unemployment rate declining to 8.4%. The progress was predominantly attributable to government hiring, primarily of new Census workers, though the retail, leisure, and hospitality sectors saw gains in new hiring.[7]

 

THIS WEEK: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: Job Openings and Turnover Survey (JOLTS). 

Thursday: Jobless Claims. 

Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Source: Econoday, September 4, 2020

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THIS WEEK: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Lululemon (LULU), Coupa Software (COUP), Slack Technologies (WORK)

Thursday: Chewy (CHWY), Peloton (PTON)

Friday: Kroger (KR) 

 

Source: Zacks, September 4, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

  Gray 

  

Quote Of The Week

Fountain Pen

 "Without labor, nothing prospers." - Aristotle 

Recipe Of The Week

Fork and Knife

Creamy Pasta Salad With Shrimp

5 servings Ingredients:
For the Dressing:
  • ¼ cup Greek yogurt
     
  • ¼ cup chicken broth
     
  • 2 tablespoons lemon juice
     
  • 1 tablespoon Dijon mustard
     
  • 2 ¼ tablespoons minced garlic
     
  • Pepper
 For the Pasta:
  • 10 oz penne pasta
     
  • Approx. 40 medium shrimp
     
  • 2 tablespoons olive oil
     
  • Salt
     
  • Pepper
     
  • ½ cup scallions, chopped
     
  • 1 teaspoon kosher salt
     
  • ½ cup shredded Cheddar cheese
     
  • ½ thinly-sliced lemon
 Directions:
  1. Whisk the ingredients for the dressing together in a bowl until smooth.
     
  2. Boil the pasta until tender yet firm to the bite, about 8 minutes.
     
  3. Preheat the oven to 450 degrees. When warm, toss the shrimp in 2 tablespoons of olive oil, season with salt and pepper, and bake in a glass baking dish for about 10-12 minutes or until bright pink and cooked through.
     
  4. Toss the pasta with the dressing in a bowl. Add the shrimp and scallions and season with salt and pepper.
     
  5. Refrigerate and garnish with the Cheddar cheese and lemons when serving.
Recipe adapted from Allrecipes[8]

Gray

 

Tax Tips

Document

Treasury Bonds vs. Municipal Bonds

 

Treasury bills, notes, and bonds may be exempt from state and local taxes, but they are fully taxable on the federal level.

 

Municipal bonds, on the other hand, are exempt from federal income tax. Municipal bonds also may be exempt of state and local income taxes for investors who live in the area where the bond was issued. However, if a bondholder purchases a municipal bond mutual fund that invests in bonds issued by other states, the bondholder may have to pay income taxes.

 

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. Mutual funds are sold only by prospectus. Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. A prospectus containing this and other information about the investment company can be obtained from your financial professional. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

 

Tip adapted from IRS.gov[9]

Golf Tip

Golfer

What is Penetrating Ball Flight?

 

A well-hit shot with a low trajectory is a "penetrating" ball flight, meaning that it is both accurate and achieves maximum distance. A penetrating shot is great for hitting into the wind because you don't risk the wind knocking down a shot that has a higher trajectory.

 

In order to achieve this penetrating ball flight, follow these tips:

●  Tee the ball higher if you want to hit it low. The sweet spot on your club face is likely higher, therefore a lower tee will make a penetrating ball flight harder to achieve.

●  Tighten your right hand (for right-handed golfers) to give yourself more control

●  Focus on your backswing and keep your swing path shallow.

 

A penetrating ball flight is a great shot for some situations on the course and is a good strategy to add to your repertoire!


Tip adapted from Golf Week[10] 

Healthy Lifestyle

Medical Cross

A Relaxing Breathing Exercise


Sit back and relax as you say goodbye to summer and hello to a new season. This breathing exercise will help you relax and rejuvenate yourself for everything that's to come.

 

The foundation for nearly all breathing exercises is "belly breathing." To get started, sit or lie down in a comfortable position and put one hand on your abdomen, just below your ribs. Put the other hand on your chest. Then, take a deep breath in through your nose and let your belly push your hand out. Next, breathe out through your mouth and feel the hand on your belly go down. The hand on your chest shouldn't move. Do this slowly 5 times, taking your time with each breath.

 

Once you master belly breathing, you can try more relaxed breathing drills.  

 

Tip adapted from University of Michigan Medical School[11]

Green Living

Leaf

 3 Tips to Minimize Food Waste

●  Shop Wisely - Go into the grocery store prepared with a list of everything you need. This will help you avoid buying items impulsively or buying things that you might not make in time.

●  Buy Imperfect Produce - Groceries stores usually have very strict standards on the produce they select, but many of these standards are just cosmetic. Foods that don't meet the criteria are often thrown away. Save this perfectly good produce by shopping at local farmers markets or other shops that don't care about a few little bumps and bruises.

●  Mine Your Fridge - Before buying more food that might go to waste, consider what you already have and how it can be used. When planning your meals for the week, incorporate these items.


Tip adapted from EarthShare.org[12]

Share the Wealth of Knowledge!

 

Please share this market update with family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our list, simply click on the "Forward email" link below. We love being introduced!

 

Gray 

Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

 

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

 

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

   

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

 

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

 

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia.

   

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

 

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

You cannot invest directly in an index.

 

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

 

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

 

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial professional for further information.

 

By clicking on these links, you will leave our server, as the links are located on another server. We have not independently verified the information available through this link. The link is provided to you as a matter of interest. Please click on the links below to leave and proceed to the selected site.

 

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. 

 [1] The Wall Street Journal, September 4, 2020

[2] The Wall Street Journal, September 4, 2020

[3] The Wall Street Journal, September 4, 2020

[4] CNBC, September 2, 2020

[5] CNBC, September 3, 2020

[6] CNBC, September 3, 2020

[7] CNBC, September 4, 2020

[8] Foodandwine.com, August 28, 2020 [9] Allrecipes.com, September 4, 2020

[10] Golfweek.com, September 4, 2020

[11] UofMhealth.org, September 4, 2020

[12] EarthShare.org, September 4, 2020

 

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