Message from Jon
Well, now that awful August is behind us, the markets have seemingly settled down a bit and reclaimed some of their losses-but for how long, is anyone's guess. We have mixed data that makes for some challenging decisions at present.
We have our technical data from Stormguard indicating a bearish measurement while our Dorsey/wright information is weaker than it was in July, but it's still in favor of domestic equities and international positions.1,2 We have the US and China indicating a renewed desire to return to the table and negotiate a deal, while a stalemate is unfolding with Brexit.3,4
We have a recession setting in within the manufacturing sector and a weakening NFIB monthly report (although it's still quite high) that shows the confidence & optimism of Small Business Owners.5 In my opinion, although this ugliness persists, the US consumer has shown resilience, which is in large part the reason for the current relief rally(s) we have experienced 3 times this year alone (January off the lows of December, June off the lows of May and now September off the lows of August).
Don't fall prey to your emotions and allow the noise and uncertainty to get the upper hand. We have been here before. Stay in the present and be patient. The long-term is just that...long-term.
In my opinion, we are not near a recession yet. We will see other signs along the way that will forecast the coming recession. 2020 brings the election year and with that, more uncertainty, but historically, it's been a positive year...so be patient and realize that we are experiencing normal market behavior in a secular bear market condition, and yes, I did say secular bear market condition.6,7
Till we speak again...Go Irish and Boiler-Up!
Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Advance
WEEKLY UPDATE - SEPTEMBER 9, 2019
The Week on Wall Street
Stocks rose last week, with help from two developments: the announcement of further U.S.-China trade talks as well as August hiring and manufacturing numbers that seemed to bolster the argument for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
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