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Weekly Market Insights: 05-24-22 Recession Concerns Rising

Hi there,





Our new address is 310 N Ferry Street, downtown Lafayette.


We should be in and settled early to mid-June.  Bambrah is counting down the days so that we can get back to “normal” and who could blame her since she has done 90% of the work behind the renovation planning.

I will be out of the office for 2 weeks during the move and not available. 

We will be open and staff will all be present to handle any issues and normal service and support during this time.  Something about me adding to the stress of the move, which I have no idea what they would be referring to?

While I am out, feel free to reach us at the same phone numbers we have always had and emails listed below;

  • For account information: Juanita@summit-fp.com & Bambrah@summit-fp.com
  • For planning needs: Nicole@summit-fp.com
  • For marketing: Megan@summit-fp.com
  • For scheduling and appointments: Shawna@summit-fp.com



There is little doubt by now that we are in a bear market condition and approaching a recession, we think around the end of 2022-beginning of 2023.  This will not be a normal recession in our opinion that is accompanied by job losses and economic decline.  It will be triggered by rising fuel prices and food shortages and last 18-36 months. 

The markets are a forecast of the economy so it comes as no surprise that we are already in the recessionary market condition but like all bear markets, we could see periods of rebounds as un-informed investors think the market is down enough to pour back into growth prematurely.  On Monday’s call, we discussed the overall condition and how it would not be out of the question to see the markets go up by 7-10% from here as investors needing to raise cash, sell what has been doing well.  Common market movements but as a reminder, we still have 2 more interest rate hikes at minimum. China is struggling to contain Covid outbreaks leading to cities shutting down and further supply chain disruption.  Inflation is at a 40 year high.  Housing is crazy and no sight to the end of that bubble and gasoline, especially diesel is rising quickly.  All are major headwinds that are not going to have a quick fix to them.


Some changes we made from fall of 2021 to present:

  • We sold tech and hospitality last fall and bought energy.
  • We added commodities, gold, utilities, value and high yield to all of our mutual fund portfolios.
  • We double the amount of cash on hand to mute volatility.
  • We removed multiple growth and emerging markets managers for violating their objectives, causing poor performances.

We might begin to see some opportunities arise from the ashes as early as the fall but we are being particularly cautious since this bear market is not like other bear markets we have recently seen and may take more due diligence to sort out a solid path to success. 

When the time is right however, the other side of this bear market is going to be particularly strong and we will be ready when the data indicates to move.


Till we speak again, enjoy this summer weather!





General Market Commentary

Recession fears grew last week following weak earnings reports from major retailers, sending stocks lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.90%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 3.05%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 3.82% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.84%.1,2,3

Trending Lower

Stock prices remained in a downtrend, capped by a sell-off on Wednesday following a succession of disappointing earnings reports from several major retailers. Despite solid April retail sales and industrial production data, weak economic numbers from China and shrinking profit margins at U.S. retailers fanned recession fears throughout the week.

Rising yields, which have been an overhang to the markets in recent weeks, turned lower as investors appeared to move cash to bonds from stocks. But lower yields did not help stock prices, which closed out the week with a volatile trading session.

Cloudy Picture with Retailers

Investors received a mixed message from the retail sector. April’s retail sales increased 0.9% from March, signifying that consumer spending remained strong. But it was difficult to determine from the retail sales report whether the increase was a function of higher retail prices or a resilient consumer.4

It was also a big week for earnings reports from some of the nation’s largest retailers. Results were disappointing as retailers struggled with supply chain issues, higher costs, and misaligned product mix. Some retailers indicated a drop in the number of transactions, suggesting that shoppers reduce purchases due to higher prices on essential items.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash. New Home Sales.

Wednesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Jobless Claims. 

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Econoday, May 20, 2022The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Zoom Video Communications (ZM).

Tuesday: Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), AutoZone, Inc. (AZO), Intuit, Inc. (INTU).

Wednesday: Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW).

Thursday: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Dollar General Corporation (DG), Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL), VMware, Inc. (VMW).

Source: Zacks, May 20, 2022Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

"It takes a very long time to become young." 

– Pablo Picasso

Don't Forget to Check Your Withholding

When was the last time you checked your tax withholding? Having the correct amount of tax withheld from your wages is an essential part of properly managing your taxes. The amount you withhold depends on your income, the number of children you claim on your return, and more.

The IRS has a helpful tool on their site called their Tax Withholding Estimator that can help you know if you have too much or too little tax withheld from your wages. Before using the tool, make sure you have all your paperwork handy, including your W2, 1099, 1095-A, and 1099-NEC, and any other forms you need to determine how much of your income is taxable.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov5

What is Foam Rolling?

Exercise is super important for our overall health, but so is recovery. Foam rollers are a popular recovery tool because they can help release tension in tight, tired muscles.

Foam rollers are large cylinders made from high-density foam. They come in different sizes and firmness levels and can be used to massage both large and smaller muscle groups. Depending on your needs, you can use the foam roller before or after a workout.

You can do countless foam rolling exercises for sore muscles, including rolling out your hamstrings, quads, upper back, lower back, IT band, triceps, forearm, and more.

Tip adapted from WebMD6

Two trains are crossing America from coast to coast, traveling over 3,000 miles of track. The Gentle Zephyr is going west at 70mph; the Western Wind is headed east at 80mph. So which train will be closer to the east coast when they roll by each other in Kansas?

Last week’s riddle: Name two words in the English language that have the letter I twice in the middle of the word. Riddle answer: Skiing, taxiing.

Lighthouse of Westerhever, Westerhever, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2022

2. The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2022

3. The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2022

4. The Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2022

5. IRS.gov, January 20, 2021  

6. webmd.com, August 17, 2021

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Copyright 2022 FMG Suite.

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