Weekly Market Insights: 11-10-21 Fed Says Tapering Ahead

Opinion

We are seeing more data coming out, reflecting the inflationary condition that we have spoken about these past several months.  An article by the FT Times this morning indicated that:

“US consumer prices jumped in October at the fastest pace in three decades, as bottlenecks and other supply-chain disruptions intensified, and inflationary pressures spread further throughout the economy.”

While the FED is trying to convince the public that the inflationary environment will be transitory, the evidence is indicating a different story.  Reflecting on previous newsletters, Cash, Bonds and Growth Stocks face headwinds that inhibit returns during an change upward in interest rates. 

China-

Tyler and I were speaking about China’s housing market several weeks ago as a potential catalyst for a market correction or collapse.  I found the conversation interesting because, as if our phones were tapped, the FED also included this speculation in their press release about a week or so later.   In China, the citizens do not have the same “retirement plan options” as in the US.  Historically, they have used Real Estate as a vehicle for savings which explains some of the “ghost cities” that have been spoken about in the news.  It is common for the end of a construction cycle to be financed with proceeds from the beginning of new construction project, and so on and so forth.  If or when the future contributions dry up, the housing projects will face completion problems unless the government steps in, which we expect to happen.

Tesla-

Like we experienced back in the early fall last year with Apple being the reason the S&P 500 shot up, Tesla is taken its place as the driver of the S&P 500 this past month.  Turns out that someone has been buying a MASSIVE amount of call options on the stock, which requires ownership of the underlying shares to hedge against the delta risk on the options.  IF or WHEN the market finds out who the buyer is, they will become the target and we could see a quick reversal of fortune unfold as we did with Softbank when they were exposed as the buyer of Apple options last year.  We have to stay tuned, I guess.

Till we speak again, enjoy the week- I will be in Texas for the remaining part of the week returning next week.

Jon

A Federal Reserve announcement on tapering, a fresh batch of corporate profits, and encouraging economic data lifted stocks to another weekly gain.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 2.00%. The Nasdaq Composite index led, tacking on 3.05%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 1.58%.1,2,3

Stocks Power Higher

Stocks marched higher throughout the week, lifted by a succession of positive corporate earnings surprises, optimistic forward guidance by some companies, and healthy economic data. Continued strong third-quarter profits reinforced the narrative that businesses were able to meet strong consumer demand and maintain robust profit margins, despite the headwinds of inflation and supply-chain knots.

Investors were unfazed by the Fed’s mid-week announcement that it would begin its bond purchase tapering plans, in part, because it had long been telegraphed and Fed Chair Powell’s optimistic analysis of the current state of the economy. Also cheered was the announcement of a new COVID-19 antiviral pill and a powerful rebound in job creation, driving stocks to new heights to close out the week.

The Fed Speaks

In an eagerly awaited November meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), the Fed pulled the trigger on its plan to taper monthly bond purchases. Fed tapering will begin this month with reductions of $15 billion per month ($10 billion in Treasurys and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities) that will end this pandemic-era policy response by July 2022.4

The Fed reiterated its belief that inflation remained transitory, though conceding it had underestimated its acceleration and persistence; it did not expect interest rates to be raised until after the completion of the tapering program. Powell expects inflation to stay elevated until mid-2022 when he anticipates supply-chain bottlenecks to clear.5,6

This Week: Key Economic Data

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Source: Econoday, November 5, 2021The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL).

Tuesday: D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), Roblox Corporation (RBLX).

Wednesday: The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM).

Friday: AstraZeneca PLC (AZN).

Source: Zacks, November 5, 2021Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

“A career is born in public, talent in privacy.”

– Marilyn Monroe

Check Your Withholding Status Online

The Withholding Calculator can help you determine whether you should submit a new W-4 to your employer, and you also can use the results to adjust your income tax withholding. If you have a more complex tax situation, you may need to use Publication 505, Tax Withholding and Estimated Tax form. This form can help you determine your self-employment tax, alternative minimum tax, or tax on unearned income by dependents. Publication 505 also can help if you receive non-wage income, including capital gains, royalties, dividends, and more.It’s important to check your withholding to ensure that you’re deducting the right amount of taxes, and these handy tools can help.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov7

Low-Impact Exercises for Healthy Joints

Here are some of our favorite low-impact exercises:

• Swimming – Not only is swimming a low-impact exercise, but it’s also a full body workout. Hop in the pool and do some laps or just splash around for fun. Either way, it’s great for exercising and staying cool.
  
  
• Kickboxing – It sounds intense, but kickboxing is actually a low-impact exercise that’s easy on your joints. If possible, modify your workout to focus more on the sport’s cardio movements and not the combat aspect.
  
  
• TRX Exercises – The TRX strap is what you often see hanging from a bar at the gym. This simple accessory makes it easy to do lunges, pullups, pushups, and squats without putting pressure on your joints.
  
  
• Cycling – Cycling, either indoors or outdoors, is a great exercise and easy on your knees.

Tip adapted from Healthline8

Complete these words by putting the same three letters into each one: F---RISH, C---DY, S---GH.

Last week’s riddle: By rearranging the letters in the phrase VIEWING A STIR, you can make the name of a U.S. state. What state is it? Answer: West Virginia.

Taughannock Falls State Park, Trumansburg, New York.

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2021

2. The Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2021

3. The Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2021

4. CNBC, November 3, 2021

5. CNBC, November 3, 2021

6. CNBC, November 3, 2021

7. IRS.gov, January 22, 2021

8. healthline.com, June 24, 2021

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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