Weekly Market Insights: 11-23-21 Stocks Mixed on COVID-19, Powell
“Just because the markets have not behaved like we anticipated yet, does not mean our decisions have been incorrect.” This is a recent and quite possible repeatable quote from Tyler to me over these past several weeks as we discuss the various market conditions.
This morning, I was reading over various articles as I normally do and came across the following quote from the FED in their semi-annual Financial Stability Report:
“Prices of risky assets generally increased since the previous report, and, in some markets, prices are high compared with expected cash flows. House prices have increased rapidly since May, continuing to outstrip increases in rent. Nevertheless, despite rising housing valuations, little evidence exists of deteriorating credit standards or highly leveraged investment activity in the housing market. Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk sentiment deteriorate, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the economic recovery stall.”
Later in the same article was an interesting quote from Nobel Prize winning economics professor Richard Thaler:
“We seem to be living in the riskiest moment of our lives, and yet the stock market seems to be napping. I admit to not understanding it.
I don’t know about you, but I’m nervous, and it seems like when investors are nervous, they’re prone to being spooked. Nothing seems to spook the market.”
During the next decade, the consensus expectation is that we are going to experience below average rates of return. A decade is a long time to assume that every year will be equal to or worse than the year before. Don’t make that mistake- there will also be years when the returns will be outsized and great. If you examine the 2000 to 2010 decade, you can picture what I am speaking of….
2000 to 2010 in S&P 500
In a separate article, concerning the Buffet Indicator, we are seeing where the current equities to GDP reading is indicating a “significant” overvaluation. Take a look…
After 21 years of talking about money to clients and studying their behaviors, I have learned that every change has a ripple effect and sometimes, those are small and insignificant and sometimes it’s a tsunami.
Morningstar says that now, the 4% rule has become the 3.3% rule for successful withdrawal rates in retirement. For someone with a $1M portfolio, that results in a $7K per year pay-cut or $583.33/month. For most, that is enough to quit their job and find a “better” one. Just imagine what inflation is going to do with this equation.
Morningstar Investment Management’s 30-year inflation-adjusted return forecast for U.S. large-cap stocks is…2.74% and their forecast for investment grade bonds is… -0.11%!
The 4% rule was based on a 1994 study that examined every rolling 30-year period since 1926 and found that retirees with a portfolio of 50% bonds and 50% stocks could draw an annual amount of 4% without risk of outliving their money. Welp, that no longer looks valid and (pst…hasn’t been for some time since living longer is a very real now more than any period in history).
Planning now becomes far, FAR more important earlier in life than before if you are going to end up where you need to be or even want to be. Tax planning and investment management are too BIG aspects that will become even bigger it appears.
“Difficult times breeds strong men/women. Strong men/women make for easier times. Easier times breed weak men/women. Weak men/women make for hard times.” This seems relevant when I read the data…
Till we speak again, enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday, and do not forget to give thanks for what you have!
General Market Commentary
Stocks were mixed last week in choppy trading as investors battled the crosscurrents of good economic data and a troubling rise in COVID-19 infections globally.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.38%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 0.32%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 1.24% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dropped 0.59%.1,2,3
A healthy retail sales report, falling jobless claims, positive earnings surprises, and strong manufacturing data lent support to stock prices, but investor sentiment was dampened by several concerns.
Chief among these worries are a resurgence of COVID-19 infections this winter and the impact inflation may have on consumer confidence and corporate profit margins. The uncertainty surrounding the renomination of Fed Chair Powell exacerbated this unease; a decision from President Biden may come soon. Technology and other high-growth companies led the market, while some of the reopening stocks, such as travel and energy, lagged.
Retail Sales Jump
October retail sales increased 1.7%, indicating that consumers may be more confident than recent surveys have suggested. Sales of electronics, appliances, and autos were particularly strong last month.4
The market cheered the report, interpreting the results as a sign that inflation has not discouraged Americans from buying the products and services they want or need. This retail sales number, however, may be overstated for two reasons. First, higher prices increase the level of sales even if consumer demand is flat. Second, spending may have been pulled forward by consumer worries over higher future prices and concerns that goods may not be available during the holiday shopping season.
We want to take this opportunity to wish you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving, full of family, fun, and joy.
On this special day of gratitude, we would also like to express our appreciation to you for extending us the privilege of serving you this year and helping you pursue your important financial goals.
Wednesday: Jobless Claims. Durable Goods Orders. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). New Home Sales. Consumer Sentiment. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
Source: Econoday, November 19, 2021The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM).
Tuesday: Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI).
Wednesday: Deere & Company (DE).
Source: Zacks, November 19, 2021Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
“The emblem of a philosophy is not that it contains a set of specific thoughts, but that it generates a way of thinking.”
– Samuel R. Delany
Selling Your Car or Buying From a Private Seller? Here Are the Tax Tips You Should Know
The first is that if you’re selling your car for less than what you paid for it, you likely won’t need to pay any sales tax on the sale because the IRS considers selling a used car for less than what you paid a capital loss. However, if you’re selling your car for more than what you paid (like if it’s a classic car you’ve restored and it’s increased in value), you may need to pay sales tax.If you’re buying a car from a private seller, you may need to pay sales tax, but this sales tax doesn’t go to the seller – it goes to the Department of Motor Vehicles and is incorporated into your car’s registration.
* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Tip adapted from CarGurus5
Stretches to Complement Your Workout
Here are some great stretches that will open up your hips, stretch out your hamstrings, and give your quads some love after a long run or lifting session:
Hamstring Stretch – Lay on the ground with your legs straight up. Gently pull one leg toward you until you feel pressure. Repeat with the other leg.
Figure Four – Sit on the ground with your legs bent and knees up. Gently rest one ankle on the quad of the opposite leg. If this is too much, straighten one leg on the floor and rest your ankle on your thigh while it’s on the ground.
Child’s Pose – Child’s pose is a common yoga movement, but it also can be a great stretch. Either hold the regular child’s pose with your knees about hip width apart or intensify the stretch by bringing your knees out wider.
Tip adapted from Runner’s World6
The Cage family has a mother, father, and six sons, and each son has one sister. So, how many people are in this family?
Last week’s riddle: An interesting occurrence happened about 25 minutes before 1 p.m. on May 6, 1978, involving numbers on the clock and months and years on the calendar. What was this numerically interesting moment? Answer: Early that afternoon, the time and date read 12:34 on 5/6/78.
Puppy (Canis lupus familiaris) and kitten (Felis catus) asleep on a very comfortable-looking blanket.
Footnotes and Sources
1. The Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2021
2. The Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2021
3. The Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2021
4. CNBC, November 16, 2021
5. cargurus.com, June 24, 2021
6. Runner’s World, June 24, 2021
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