Weekly Market Insights: 8-26-21 - Will the Fed Taper in 2021?
Once again, the market has repeated the previous behavior of the last several months wherein it spends about 7-10 days retreating downward and then bounces off a support line and recovers.
This has seemed to take place mid-month and declined to the tune of between 1.5% and 3% but certainly not enough to warrant any changes to our approach. Each time though, we think this might be the time where we could actually see a 7-10% leg down—but nope.
For every day this market reaches a new high, the future gets more difficult, so at this point, we are hoping we will see some kind of correction that would allow for some renewed interest from institutional investors and hedge funds, but I am not holding my breath that it happens soon.
Till we speak again, mask up and enjoy the weather! That is, post heat advisory weather,
General Market Commentary
Stocks turned lower last week amid the increasing probability of a Fed tapering, mixed economic data, and growing concerns about the economic impact of the Delta variant.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.11%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.59%. The Nasdaq Composite index slipped 0.73%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, surrendered 2.94%.1,2,3
After the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 index climbed to new record highs to begin the week, stocks pulled back amid weaker-than-expected retail sales, festering concerns about the Delta variant, and slowing growth in China.
The stock market retreat accelerated mid-week with the release of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes, which signaled that Fed officials may be ready to begin reducing its monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. Stocks managed to stabilize on Friday, paring some of the week’s losses. Consumer staples, health care, real estate, and utilities were the top-performing groups.4
Taper by Year End?
Two weeks ago, multiple regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents suggested that the economy was strong enough to justify tapering the Fed’s monthly bond purchases.
Last week, that chorus grew a bit louder with the release of minutes from July’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. The precise timing was left undecided, with some officials believing it should begin before year-end, while others thought waiting until the start of the new year was the better choice.5
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Existing Home Sales. PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) Composite Flash.
Source: Econoday, August 20, 2021The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: JD.com, Inc. (JD), Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW).
Tuesday: Best Buy Co. (BBY), Intuit, Inc. (INTU).
Wednesday: Salesforce.com (CRM), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK).
Thursday: Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Workday, Inc. (WDAY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Dell Technologies (DELL), VMware, Inc. (VMW), Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON).
Source: Zacks, August 20, 2021Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
“Every man is working out his destiny in his own way and nobody can be of any help except by being kind, generous, and patient.”
– Henry Miller
Start a New Business Off on the Right Foot
Starting a new business? There are some important tax tips to know to set yourself up for success. Here are some tips that the IRS shares for new business owners:
Choose the right business structure: The form of business determines which income tax return a business taxpayer needs to file. The most common business structures are a sole proprietorship, a partnership, a corporation, an S corporation, and an LLC.
Apply for an Employer Identification Number (EIN): An EIN is used to identify a business. Most businesses need an EIN.
* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Tip adapted from IRS.gov6
Summer Skincare Tips
The first, and most important, tip is to always wear sunscreen, even if you're not spending a lot of time out in the sun. Some skincare products, including makeup, have sunscreen built-in, but you should consider using a moisturizer with at least SPF 30 for an extra level of protection.
Another good summer skincare tip is to lighten up your skincare routine. In the summer, you're likely going to be sweating, swimming, and spending time outside so you might not need as much makeup or products as you do in the winter.
Tip adapted from Allure7
Aaron is the brother of Bob. Bob is the brother of Cody. Cody is the father of Dan. So how is Dan related to Aaron?
Last week’s riddle: What three positive numbers give the same answer when multiplied or added together? Answer: 1,2, and 3.
Two Atlantic Puffins interacting in Newfoundland, Canada.
Footnotes and Sources
1. The Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2021
2. The Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2021
3. The Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2021
4. ALPS Portfolio Solutions, August 20, 2021
5. Reuters.com, August 19, 2021
6. IRS.gov, September 19, 2020
7. Allure.com, July 22, 2019
Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
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