Newsletter and Blog

Last week we saw some warning signs reappear in the data that has us concerned about a market correction in our near future, but the signs could be abated if the Gov't continues their stimulus efforts on the national and household fronts.

We are holding our approach for clients and staying in the now while avoiding any kind of speculation on the why's and what for's simply because the unknowns are growing daily it seems. There is definitely a disconnect between what's occurring on Wall Street and what's happening on Main Street, in our opinion.

We are heading into earnings season and according to our call this morning with our CFA, banks will be the defining portion of earnings this week. If they demonstrate an increase in loan losses due to Covid-19 or if they report more of a flat number, this will further confirm the progressing of or faltering of the US economic recovery efforts.

Yesterday it appears was a strong rally in the markets on speculation of additional stimulus and liquidity by the FED. We are seeing the underlying conditions point to renewed concerns about the stalling of the economic recovery due to Covid-19 and the "second wave" of cases being reported daily all over the country.

Our opinion going into July is that we will likely see the positive sentiment tire as the month ages, giving way to the convergence of data we are expecting to see come month's end.

After last week's big sell off and reminder that whatever can rally quickly can also fall quickly, we are seeing some renewed enthusiasm that has made me chuckle a little bit. Today's (Tuesday 16th of June) rebound has a narrative that is talking about how the "Consumer is back, and as a result, retail numbers are up 17%!"